Profit From Your Forecasting Software

Paul Goodwin

• 01 juni 2018
• 9781119414575

Samenvatting:

SUPPLIES THE MISSING PIECE IN YOUR FORECASTING PROCESS

No matter how sophisticated the forecasting software you use, your forecasts will not achieve peak accuracy until you master the complex judgment calls that only a human can make. The first book of its kind, Profit from Your Forecasting Software shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software.

Taking a non-mathematical approach, it explores common decisions such as choosing the most appropriate model, adjusting forecasts, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and more. It also provides plain-English explanations of crucial concepts such as seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared. And it helps you:

• Choose the best forecasting methods for a range of different purposes and situations
• Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software's output
• Gain insight into the psychological biases that can influence forecasters' judgment calls
• Know when and if to override your software's predictions
• Learn to test, plan, and configure your software for optimal accuracy

Whether you're a forecasting ace, a reluctant newcomer, or anything in-between, Profit from Your Forecasting Software is one professional resource you can't afford to be without.

Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting

A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software.

Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy.

• Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations
• Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s output
• Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention

• Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software

Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.